Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 34,388
2 Florida 31,250
3 Mississippi 30,655
4 Arizona 28,839
5 Alabama 28,774
6 Georgia 26,594
7 South Carolina 26,049
8 Tennessee 25,537
9 Texas 24,349
10 Iowa 24,303
11 Nevada 24,147
12 Arkansas 23,930
13 New York 23,187
14 New Jersey 22,470
15 Rhode Island 22,049
16 North Dakota 21,436
17 Illinois 21,250
18 District of Columbia 20,889
19 Idaho 20,477
20 Nebraska 20,377
21 Delaware 19,752
22 Maryland 19,582
23 California 19,571
24 South Dakota 19,545
25 Utah 18,643
26 Oklahoma 18,267
27 Massachusetts 18,237
28 North Carolina 18,001
29 Kansas 17,789
30 Missouri 17,717
31 Wisconsin 16,917
32 Indiana 16,343
33 Virginia 15,975
34 Connecticut 15,473
35 Minnesota 15,225
36 Kentucky 14,039
37 New Mexico 12,896
38 Michigan 12,594
39 Ohio 12,021
40 Puerto Rico 11,987
41 Pennsylvania 11,864
42 Washington 11,124
43 Colorado 10,951
44 Alaska 9,989
45 Montana 8,876
46 Wyoming 7,889
47 Hawaii 7,805
48 West Virginia 7,363
49 Oregon 7,078
50 New Hampshire 5,721
51 Maine 3,675
52 Vermont 2,727

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 330
2 Kansas 277
3 Tennessee 248
4 Oklahoma 246
5 South Dakota 246
6 Missouri 233
7 Arkansas 220
8 Wisconsin 216
9 Nebraska 212
10 Iowa 211
11 Utah 195
12 Texas 185
13 Idaho 168
14 Alabama 158
15 Kentucky 157
16 Mississippi 152
17 South Carolina 146
18 Georgia 145
19 Rhode Island 142
20 Montana 140
21 Delaware 131
22 Illinois 129
23 Wyoming 126
24 Florida 111
25 North Carolina 110
26 Louisiana 105
27 Indiana 99
28 Virginia 99
29 Maryland 98
30 Puerto Rico 94
31 West Virginia 92
32 Michigan 90
33 Minnesota 88
34 Ohio 88
35 Pennsylvania 84
36 California 83
37 Colorado 82
38 Alaska 78
39 Connecticut 78
40 Nevada 78
41 District of Columbia 71
42 Washington 67
43 Arizona 63
44 Hawaii 57
45 New Mexico 44
46 New Jersey 43
47 Massachusetts 42
48 Oregon 41
49 New York 34
50 New Hampshire 20
51 Maine 19
52 Vermont 9

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,807
2 New York 1,678
3 Massachusetts 1,341
4 Connecticut 1,258
5 Louisiana 1,138
6 Rhode Island 1,020
7 Mississippi 926
8 District of Columbia 874
9 Arizona 738
10 Michigan 695
11 Illinois 680
12 Maryland 637
13 Delaware 635
14 Pennsylvania 622
15 South Carolina 608
16 Florida 602
17 Georgia 591
18 Indiana 515
19 Texas 510
20 Alabama 487
21 Nevada 485
22 New Mexico 396
23 Iowa 395
24 Ohio 389
25 Arkansas 383
26 California 372
27 Minnesota 351
28 Colorado 349
29 Virginia 337
30 New Hampshire 322
31 Tennessee 311
32 North Carolina 302
33 Missouri 299
34 Washington 277
35 Kentucky 250
36 Idaho 240
37 North Dakota 236
38 Nebraska 235
39 Oklahoma 233
40 South Dakota 217
41 Wisconsin 212
42 Kansas 201
43 Puerto Rico 178
44 West Virginia 161
45 Utah 136
46 Montana 131
47 Oregon 123
48 Maine 102
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 79
51 Hawaii 72
52 Alaska 56

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arkansas 19
2 Mississippi 6
3 Virginia 6
4 Florida 5
5 Kansas 5
6 Louisiana 4
7 Nevada 4
8 South Carolina 4
9 West Virginia 4
10 North Carolina 3
11 North Dakota 3
12 Ohio 3
13 Puerto Rico 3
14 Rhode Island 3
15 South Dakota 3
16 Tennessee 3
17 Texas 3
18 Alabama 2
19 Arizona 2
20 California 2
21 Georgia 2
22 Idaho 2
23 Iowa 2
24 Wyoming 2
25 Delaware 1
26 Illinois 1
27 Indiana 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Massachusetts 1
30 Michigan 1
31 Missouri 1
32 Montana 1
33 Nebraska 1
34 New Mexico 1
35 Oklahoma 1
36 Pennsylvania 1
37 Washington 1
38 Wisconsin 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Colorado 0
41 Connecticut 0
42 District of Columbia 0
43 Hawaii 0
44 Maine 0
45 Maryland 0
46 Minnesota 0
47 New Hampshire 0
48 New Jersey 0
49 New York 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Utah 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 146,328 1 99
Trousdale Tennessee 145,693 2 99
Lafayette Florida 145,690 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 138,360 4 99
Lake Tennessee 123,147 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 39,708 172 94
Richland South Carolina 33,531 271 91
York South Carolina 17,592 1061 66
Orange California 16,527 1161 63
Pierce Washington 9,093 2050 34

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,848 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,302 3 99
Randolph Georgia 4,131 4 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 5 99
Richland South Carolina 529 700 77
Davidson Tennessee 409 946 69
Orange California 350 1090 65
Pierce Washington 231 1466 53
York South Carolina 221 1513 51

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons